Market Status of Meat Analogs and Their Impact on Livestock Industries

Among the various raw materials used to replace meat proteins with plant proteins, soy protein and pea protein are commonly used because they are highly nutritious and, as mentioned above, have relatively low allergenicity (De Marchi et al., 2021; Ma et al., 2022; Zhang et al., 2024). Grains, such as rice, also have low allergenic potential, so they are gradually recognized as potential meat substitutes and are being studied extensively. In a study by da Silva et al. (2021) examining the physicochemical composition and properties of plant protein concentrates derived from potatoes, rice, and peas, pea protein concentrates exhibited superior solubility, emulsifying properties, and rapid interfacial tension reduction, and the low solubility of potato protein concentrates could be improved through heat treatment, providing valuable information for substituting animal ingredients with plant-based ones in meat analog production. Penchalaraju and Bosco (2022) developed plant-based meatballs using mung bean, cowpea, and pigeon pea protein concentrates obtained using alkali/isoelectric precipitation methods. These concentrates showed high solubility under acidic and alkaline conditions (pH 2.0, 9.0), indicating their potential for use in various food groups, such as fruit juices, meats, and dairy products (Penchalaraju and Bosco, 2022). The plant-based meatballs, made by mixing equal amounts of the three concentrates, exhibited taste and color similar to traditional meatballs but with a lower oil absorption rate (Penchalaraju and Bosco, 2022). In related work, Putthawan and Chaiso (2023) developed plant-based meat analogs for older adults by combining soy, sacha inchi, wheat flour, quinoa, and perilla seeds with the antioxidant effects of Amaranthus dubius aqueous extract. Lee et al. (2022) prepared meat substitutes based on low-moisture extrusion cooking by mixing rice protein and soy protein in various ratios to create an alternative raw material with the potential to replace up to 75% soy protein with rice protein. Another study aimed to enhance the efficiency of isolated pea protein through treatments such as ultrasound, heat, and various enzymes (Tahir et al., 2024). These pre-treatment combinations improved the solubility, emulsification, and foaming properties of isolated pea protein and significantly enhanced the gelation, which is crucial for achieving meat-like qualities in plant-based meat analogs (Tahir et al., 2024).

In addition to the plant protein sources already mentioned above, lablab bean pods have also been highlighted as being rich in protein and other nutrients, with very low levels of antinutrient phytates, and green wheat protein is another high-quality plant protein with the potential to produce meat analogs (Pandey et al., 2023; Wen et al., 2023). Chia seeds, one of the sources of plant-based fat analogs, as mentioned earlier, have also recently been mentioned as a potential new protein alternative in the form of defatted chia powder (Senna et al., 2024).

Animal fat tissues containing collagen are elastic solids at room temperature but melt due to collagen protein denaturation during cooking (Choi et al., 2023). To enhance the quality of plant-based meat analogs, it is crucial to replicate the appropriate fat to achieve the moisture retention and juiciness of meat. Hu and McClements (2022) created emulsions from soy protein and soybean oil droplets, which were softer than actual fat and did not melt upon heating. Adding agar to these emulsion gels increased hardness and allowed some fat to melt during heating, but they still did not perfectly replicate the quality of beef fat tissue (Hu and McClements, 2022). Another study developed hybrid emulsion gels incorporating agar and alginate to mimic animal fat tissue (Choi et al., 2023). After mixing soybean oil, soy protein, agar, and alginate, the agar was cold-set, followed by ion-induced alginate gelation by immersion in a calcium chloride solution (Choi et al., 2023). The resulting gels improved the quality of plant-based meat analogs by capturing oil droplets and exhibiting elasticity across various temperatures, similar to pork fat (Choi et al., 2023). Subsequent research involved developing emulsion gels by treating soy oil, soy protein, and curdlan with transglutaminase to promote intermolecular bonding (Choi et al., 2024). The resulting emulsion gel retained elasticity after heating and effectively removed off-flavors from plant-derived fats (Choi et al., 2024). Curdlan is a heat-induced gelling agent similar in structure to collagen, the main component of animal fat, and has been identified as an alternative to animal fat (Choi et al., 2024). Other alternative ingredients based on similar principles include konjac glucomannan, methylcellulose, starch, and globular proteins. However, gel emulsions based on polysaccharides, such as konjac glucomannan and methylcellulose, are relatively brittle, motivating research to increase the gel strength (Choi et al., 2024). In the case of methylcellulose, the structure changes during heating, exposing hydrophobic regions, so it can maintain the firmness of the gel and is therefore often used in combination with konjac glucomannan, which is relatively heat-sensitive (Jeong et al., 2023). In another study, Pickering emulsions prepared with methylcellulose and isolated pea protein complexes significantly improved the emulsification stability, texture, and sensory properties of vegetable patties, effectively replacing conventional vegetable oils (Keum et al., 2024). The hydrophilic properties of methylcellulose before heating may have helped emulsify and stabilize the emulsion together with the isolated pea protein complexes (Jeong et al., 2023). Transglutaminase can be used to cross-link emulsion droplets between protein particles, and deacetylation of konjac glucomannan by alkali can induce strengthening of hydrogen bonds and hydrophobic interactions (Choi et al., 2024; Jeong et al., 2023) Although innovations that closely imitate the protein fat composition of conventional meat have been provided, more research is still needed to address the binding of protein and fat components involved in assembling meat analogs. This will ensure that meat analogs not only provide nutritionally relevant components but also satisfy the sensorial acceptability of consumers (Du et al., 2023).

Flavor is crucial in replicating meat, with about 80% of its appeal stemming from aroma (Kim et al., 2022). These flavors are generated by the Maillard reaction between amino-containing ingredients and reducing sugars when meat is heated and the production of various flavor compounds by volatile sulfur compounds and lipid oxidation (Bassam et al., 2022). Plant-based meat analogs have stronger nutty and fungal/earthy flavors than traditional meat. Kaczmarska et al. (2021) analyzed the flavor-related components of plant-based meat analogs and traditional meat. They found that glutathione, an important precursor of the Maillard reaction products in meat, was not found in plant-based meat analogs, and hypoxanthine, which enhances the flavor of meat, was also lower in plant-based meat analogs than in traditional meat. In addition, there are some differences in the flavor profile compared to traditional meat, indicating that it is difficult to generate meat flavor compounds in plant-based meat analogs. Results showing volatile compounds formed during polyunsaturated fatty acid degradation revealed that the total volatile compound profile of plant-based meat analogs was similar to that of traditional meat but was enriched in D-limonene and 2-pentylfuran, which are common in spices and legumes (Kaczmarska et al., 2021). Therefore, research focusing on reproducing meat flavor and aroma is essential to ensure that consumers can taste meat when they bite into meat analogs. A fundamental challenge is the characteristic off-flavor of soy protein, commonly used in plant-based meat substitutes. Technologies to eliminate or mask this off-flavor can significantly improve the quality of plant-based meat substitutes (Sakai et al., 2022a).

The cyclodextrin glucanotransferase reaction induced in plant-based patties generates cyclodextrins, which reduce the volatility of off-flavor compounds in the patties. This reaction also enhances the texture and sustains the water and oil binding properties (Sakai et al., 2022a). Further research on the enzymatic deamidation of plant proteins using protein-glutaminase led to improved water retention of plant-based patties, enhanced juiciness, and reduced unnecessary flavor compounds, thereby improving the physical, sensory, and nutritional properties of the patties (Sakai et al., 2023). In another study, a gelatin alginate hybrid hydrogel controlled the release of aroma molecules through thermal reactions (Kim et al., 2022). This hydrogel could be manufactured in various microcapsule formulations, encapsulating and preserving the aroma during refrigeration and releasing it upon heating to mimic meat aroma and control soybean off-flavor (Kim et al., 2022). Other efforts to create a meat-like taste and flavor in plant-based meat substitutes include encapsulating roast beef flavor in Pickering emulsions made from soy protein isolate and chitosan complexes (Zeng et al., 2024). Similar to the study by Kim et al. (2022), increasing the heating temperature or time accelerated the release of flavor compounds, but encapsulation reduced the loss of these compounds (Zeng et al., 2024). Consequently, adding encapsulated emulsions to plant-based meat substitutes improved flavor and texture (Zeng et al., 2024).

Fermented sausages incorporating soy protein and mycoprotein showed increased levels of volatile compounds similar to animal meat sausages and reduced amounts of off-flavor compounds, such as 1-octen-3-ol, through thermal extrusion and fermentation processing (Yuan et al., 2022). Onions fermented using Polyporus umbellatus exhibited a strong meaty flavor. Important aroma compounds in meat products, such as methyl palmitate, bis(2-methyl-furyl) disulfide, (E,E)-2,4-decadienal, γ-nonalactone, and eugenol, were found in large quantities in fermented samples. The presence of bis(2-methyl-furyl) disulfide, which imparts meaty and savory flavors, was purported to form during the fermentation process by P. umbellatus-mediated enzymatic reaction of intermediates derived from the thermal degradation of thiamine (Stöppelmann et al., 2023). Chekmarev et al. (2022) analyzed charred beef using gas chromatography olfactometry and, based on their findings, synthesized five flavor compounds for application in plant-based meat substitutes. These additives enhanced the fatty taste and aroma of plant-based patties, with notable effects from 3-(methylthio)-decanal, 3-(methylthio)-octanal, and 3,5-undecadien-2-one (Chekmarev et al., 2022). When it comes to mimicking the taste, texture, and red color of traditional meat, however, soy leghemoglobin, a protein with a three-dimensional structure containing a heme group similar to mammalian muscle myoglobin, has emerged as a promising option (Bolmanis et al., 2023).

Produced from soy, leghemoglobin is an effective ingredient for creating plant-based meat substitutes that closely resemble the quality of animal meat. Studies have been conducted to optimize growth conditions in shake flasks and cultivation media containing glycerol and methanol to enhance leghemoglobin production in strains such as Pichia pastoris, Saccharomyces cerevisiae, and Komagataella phaffii (Bolmanis et al., 2023; Pentjuss et al., 2023; Suleiko et al., 2024).

The color of meat is regulated by myoglobin, a heme-structured protein, which gives fresh meat a bright red appearance (Bolmanis et al., 2023; Ryu et al., 2023). Unlike animal proteins, plant proteins typically lack myoglobin and exhibit a yellow hue, which can deter consumer purchases (Ryu et al., 2023). Natural dyes used to improve the color of plant-based meat substitutes include beet, tomato, lycopene, carrot juice extracts, and soy leghemoglobin (Ryu et al., 2023). Recent studies have effectively mimicked the color of cooked meat by adding red beet and cocoa to plant-based meat substitutes (Ryu et al., 2023). Moreover, adding tomato and grape skin powder not only improved color (CIE a*) but also increased hardness and elasticity while inhibiting lipid oxidation and providing antioxidant effects (Zhao et al., 2024). Laccase (a multicopper oxidase) and sugar beet pectin helped plant-based patties undergo browning similar to beef patties when cooked, proving more effective than beet addition alone (Sakai et al., 2022b). Sakai et al. (2024) further revealed that the laccase catalytic reaction oxidizes betanidin (a red pigment) into brown high-molecular-weight polymers by decomposing it into betalamic acid and cyclo-DOPA. This principle was proposed as a browning mechanism for plant-based meat substitutes containing betanidin.

One of the key aspects in the production of plant-based meat substitutes is replicating the texture of meat, including chewiness, elasticity, and firmness. Plant proteins generally lack binding properties, causing the structure to collapse after cooking. Therefore, forming a fibrous anisotropic structure is crucial to effectively mimic the texture of meat (Ozturk and Hamaker, 2023). Commonly used ingredients for this purpose include methylcellulose, wheat gluten, konjac glucomannan, κ-carrageenan, transglutaminase, laccase, and zein (Ozturk and Hamaker, 2023). While wheat gluten is readily accessible and can create a fibrous network structure through disulfide bonding, its potential to cause allergies necessitates caution in its use (Bogueva and McClements, 2023; Ozturk and Hamaker, 2023).

Methods to improve the texture of plant-based meat substitutes can be divided into 1) the use of natural materials and additives and 2) the application of processing techniques, often used in combination. Mulberry leaf powder has been shown to form porous, lamellar, and filamentous structures, altering textural properties (Zhang et al., 2024). This powder also increased disulfide bonding and significantly boosted the β-turn secondary structure of protein alignment, resulting in a 98% increase in chewiness of the plant-based meat substitute (Zhang et al., 2024). Taghian Dinani et al. (2023) added pea protein and wheat gluten to ι-carrageenan, a type of hydrocolloid found in numerous species of red seaweeds. Calcium chloride was then added to form a hydrogel that maintained strong bonds, producing a product with excellent fibrous structure and improved quality. Other studies have incorporated canola oil into plant-based meat analogs to act as an inert filler between protein matrices or to enhance textural properties (Ozturk and Hamaker, 2023; Saavedra Isusi et al., 2023). The addition of sodium alginate to high-moisture extruded soy protein concentrate improved chewiness, enhanced protein protein or protein water interactions, increased water retention, and formed a dense fibrous structure (Dou et al., 2022). In an alkaline environment, adding tannic acid improved adhesive stability, resulting in products where soy protein isolate effectively bonded with simulated fats (Xue et al., 2024).

In a study by Chen et al. (2022), extruding a mixture of plant proteins with amylopectin promoted the unfolding of vicilin and legumin chains, creating a meat-like fibrous structure through protein rearrangement. High-moisture extrusion cooking, commonly used in the production of plant-based meat substitutes, generates relatively soft products with meat-like fibrous structures and textures (Ghanghas et al., 2024; Ozturk and Hamaker, 2023). The technique of injecting nitrogen gas during high-moisture extrusion in a cooling die generated more bubbles between protein matrices, reducing the density and hardness of plant-based meat substitutes and partially overcoming the limitations of traditional texture implementation methods (Ghanghas et al., 2024). However, high moisture extrusion methods can result in inconsistent quality depending on the nature of the plant protein concentrate or isolate. In order to form a fibrous structure like meat, it is possible only when the protein content of the protein concentrate or isolate is about 50% or more, and the ash and fiber contents and moisture retention ability are among other influential determinants of the texture. In addition, during the high-moisture extrusion process, the texture may vary significantly due to variables such as moisture content, extrusion temperature, and screw speed, and as a result, it may not be suitable for mass production (Ferawati et al., 2021). Regardless, the high-moisture extrusion method is one of the most studied technologies for producing plant-based meat substitutes due to its low labor and extruder energy consumption and high throughput due to the continuous processing system compared to other processing technologies developed to date. In the future, processing technology development is needed to further improve the texture and optimize the technology of plant-based meat substitutes, and new technologies such as shear structuring, electrospinning, freeze structuring, and three-dimensional printing with relatively fewer processing variables have been proposed (De Angelis et al., 2024; Ozturk and Hamaker, 2023).

According to a study by De Marchi et al. (2021), commercial plant-based burgers and conventional meat burgers contain similar amounts of protein and saturated fats, but plant-based burgers are richer in minerals and polyunsaturated fatty acids. Among the 18 analyzed amino acids, alanine, glycine, and methionine were significantly lower in plant-based burgers, and hydroxyproline, a major component of collagen protein, was only detected in conventional meat burgers (De Marchi et al., 2021). Nonetheless, plant-based beef burger products exhibit variations in fat, protein, and mineral content depending on the added ingredients, allowing for the adjustment of raw materials to suit consumer dietary preferences.

Plant-derived proteins, particularly soy, are known to be less digestible than animal proteins. When evaluated based on the digestible indispensable amino acid score (DIAAS) of protein, which is an indicator of protein quality, the main raw materials for plant-based meat analogs, such as corn, rice, wheat, oat, pea, and soybean, showed 36, 47, 48, 57, 70, and 91, respectively (Herreman et al., 2020). Conversely, the DIAAS (%) of beef, pork, and chicken, which are the main raw materials for animal-based processed meat, was 109.3%, 113.9%, and 108.2%, respectively, showing that they are easily digested and have a superior amino acid composition ratio compared to plant-based proteins (Ertl et al., 2016). In vitro digestion studies also showed that animal-based pork and beef have higher protein digestibility, releasing more peptides than plant-based meat analogs (Xie et al., 2022a; Xie et al., 2022b). When plant-based meat substitutes were fed to mice, their gastrointestinal digestive function was impaired, and the intestinal digestibility and absorption of plant-based meat analogs were lower than those of conventional meat (Xie et al., 2022a).

High-pressure processing or high hydrostatic pressure processing technologies can improve the low digestibility of soy-derived plant proteins (Mulla et al., 2022). High-pressure treatment induces protein denaturation, aggregation, or gelation, which can modify the characteristics of food proteins and increase digestibility (Mulla et al., 2022). Conversely, some research suggests that plant-based meat substitutes can enhance gastrointestinal motility and appetite in mice. Rats fed plant-based meat analogs for an extended period (68 d) showed increased thickness in the duodenum and jejunum and upregulation of neurotransmitters (5-hydroxytryptamine) and related signals associated with gastrointestinal motility (Xie et al., 2023). Additionally, volatile compounds like linalool, associated with appetite regulation, indicated that the intake of plant-based meat analogs decreased the level of appetite-suppressing factors compared to conventional meat (Xie et al., 2023).

In 2019, the size of China’s meat product market was 1 billion yuan, showing an increasing trend every year, accounting for 27.4% of global meat consumption as of 2021 (Chyxx, 2020; FAO, 2023). However, coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) and African swine fever had a negative impact on meat supplies (OECD and FAO, 2021). To solve this meat supply problem, China’s Ministry of Agriculture and Rural Affairs mentioned alternative proteins in the “14th Five-Year Agricultural Plan” for 2022, and President Xi Jinping emphasized the importance of alternative proteins as the core of food security (Good Food Institute Asia Pacific, 2022). Although China’s plant-based meat analog market is still in its infancy, it is a market with great growth potential. As of 2023, China’s market revenue for plant-based meat analogs amounted to USD 2.13 billion and is expected to grow to USD 3.95 billion in 2029 (Statista, 2024b). Recently, meat processing or raw material suppliers, such as Shuangta and Jinzi, are expanding into the plant-based meat analogs market, and local startups, such as OmniPork, HaoFood, Starfield, and Zhenmeat, are emerging (Table 2; aT, 2021; Ortega et al., 2022; Wilder, 2023). Among these companies, OmniPork sells several products, such as minced pork and pork strips based on soy protein concentrate, and HaoFood markets dumplings and chicken products using corn, pea, and wheat proteins (Table 2).

The plant-based analogs food market in the US has entered the mainstream market due to positive awareness of healthy vegetarianism and increased interest in animal welfare (aT, 2020b). The revenue of the plant-based meat analogs market in the US was USD 1.36 billion in 2023, an increase of 23.7% compared to 2022 (Statista, 2024b). Despite the unstable international situation, it has grown steadily, recording an average annual growth rate of 13% over the years from 2019 to 2022 (aT, 2024a). In addition, due to continuous research and development (R&D) investment and food technology innovation, the plant-based meat analogs market is expected to reach USD 1.57 billion by 2029 (aT, 2024a; Statista, 2024b). According to a 2022 study by market research firm Acosta, 40% of plant-based meat analog consumers surveyed had purchased such products within the past 6 months, with 60% of buyers citing health as their main motivation and purchasing several products per month (Acosta, 2022). The formation of this continuous consumer base is due to plant-based meat analog companies in the US producing various types of products based on technology. Recently, plant-based meat analog companies based in the US include MorningStar Farms, Beyond Meat, Impossible Foods, Amy’s Kitchen, Boca, Tofurky, Lightlife, Field Roast, Loma Linda, Before the Butcher, and Daring, among which MorningStar Farms and Beyond Meat were selected as the first and second most recognized companies in the US, respectively (Table 3; Statista, 2023a). MorningStar Farms sells 38 different plant-based meat analogs, such as burger patties, chicken nuggets, and hot dogs using wheat gluten, soy-based proteins, and vegetable oils (corn, canola, sunflower oil; MorningStar Farms, 2024b). Another company, Beyond Meat, registered trademarks for 108 vegetable protein foods, including products that mimic meat protein and marbling using pea and coconut oil.

The UK has the largest analogs food market in Europe (Statista, 2024b). The number of vegetarians in the UK as of 2021 was estimated at approximately 10% of the total population, and according to a survey of European consumers on plant-based foods published by ProVeg International in 2021, plant-based milk, meat analogs, and vegan margarine, cheese, and consumption of ready-to-eat foods was highest in Europe (aT, 2023). As of 2023, the revenue of the UK’s plant-based meat analogs market was USD 700 million, with an average of USD 550 million over the years from 2018 to 2022 (Statista, 2024b). It showed a decline rate of 3.3% in 2022 compared to the previous year but recovered in 2023 and showed a growth rate of 0.9% and is expected to show a growth rate of 4.3% in 2024 (Statista, 2024b). The beginnings of meat substitution in Britain date from the Victorian era, when a sizeable vegetarian community emerged (Rödl, 2019). Vegetarians made meat dishes, such as cutlets and sirloin combined with vegetables, increasing the diversity of vegetarian diets and replacing animal ingredients (Rödl, 2019). According to the results of a survey conducted by the EU Smart Protein Project in 2023, the country with the highest proportion of consumers purchasing plant-based meat analogs in supermarkets was the UK, at 74%, the highest in Europe (EU Protein Project, 2023). Companies entering the UK’s plant-based meat analogs market include UK-based Lina McCartney Foods, Meatless Farm, Cauldron Foods, THIS, VBites, and Richmond Sausages, while Beyond Meat in the US and Vivera in the Netherlands are also actively commercializing their products (Table 4; Statista, 2023b; USDA, 2022). However, due to the recent rise in production costs of plant-based analogs and rising inflation costs, many plant-based meat analogs companies in the UK are in financial difficulties or are experiencing difficulties (aT, 2024b).

The revenue of Europe’s plant-based meat analogs market increased by 11.0% to EUR 3.78 billion (approximately USD 4.07 billion) in 2024 compared to the previous year, and Germany, the UK, Italy, Spain, France, and the Netherlands were found to have large substitute food markets in Europe (aT, 2024b; Statista, 2024b). The growth of this market demonstrates European consumer preference for a sustainable diet. Textured vegetable protein (TVP), also called soy protein, soy meat, or soy chunks, accounted for 44% of the total European meat analog market and was valued at approximately USD 760 million in 2019 (The Vegan Society, 2019). TVP can replace various types of meat, and its high market share is expected to increase the consumption of plant-based substitutes in Europe as consumers become more aware of health, the environment, and sustainable sources of protein intake (aT, 2024b). According to a survey conducted by the Good Food Institute (2022), in Italy, 50% of respondents said they consume plant-based meat at least once a month, followed by Spain (47%), Germany (41%), and France (27%). Representative meat analog manufacturing companies in Europe include Italy’s Flower Burger, Spain’s Heura Foods, Germany’s Terra Vegane, and France’s La Vie (Pun, 2021; Starostinetskaya, 2024a; Starostinetskaya, 2024b). Flower Burger sells alternative foods, such as hamburgers, pizza, and kebabs, made using plant-based protein (Flower Burger, 2021). Heura Foods mainly sells meat analog products, such as ham, sausages, chicken breasts, chicken nuggets, and hamburger patties (Heura Foods, 2022). Terra Vegane sells bacon, steak, and ground meat, and La Vie mainly sells bacon (Table 5).

In Russia, the revenue of the plant-based meat analogs market amounted to USD 680 million as of 2023, and representative companies include Efko Food, Well Done, Nye Myaso, and Green Fish Agama (Kotra, 2022; Statista, 2024b). They all sell a variety of products, including cutlets and hamburger patty analogs; for example, Green Fish Agama sells salmon, crab, cheese, and sausage products using plant-based proteins, sunflower oil, and natural spices (Table 5). In addition to the Russian companies mentioned above, global companies, such as Beyond Meat, are leading most of the Russian meat analog food market (Park, 2021a). In terms of sales, plant-based meat analog frozen products increased 2.5 times in the first half of 2023 compared to the previous year, and the plant-based analog market is expected to grow at an average annual rate of more than 9.94% from 2023 to 2028 (Actual Market Research, 2023; aT, 2023). According to a survey on meat analog food preferences in Russia, 80% of respondents were aware of alternative foods, and 51% of them responded positively to including analog foods in school lunch menus (aT, 2022).

In Asia, the plant-based meat analog market is largest in China, Japan, and Indonesia, and the Asian market is expected to grow by 10.17% annually (CAGR 2024 2029) to reach USD 3.74 billion in 2024 (Statista, 2024b). In Japan, plant-analog food is attracting attention as a sustainable food in terms of health, environment, and ethics. As the popularity of vegetarian and vegan diets increased in the early 20th century, various plant-analog food products were developed and sold in the market (Hitomi and Murakami, 2022). As of 2023, the revenue of Japan’s plant-based meat analog market amounted to USD 303.3 million and is expected to grow to USD 427.1 million in 2029 (Statista, 2024b). One of the characteristics of the Japanese plant-based analog market is that existing livestock processing companies are actively producing plant-based analog food products using their own seasoning and processing methods. In particular, the importance of entering the plant-based analog food market can be confirmed as all of the top three Japanese processed livestock food manufacturers (Nippon Ham, ITO Ham, Prima Meat Packers) are launching plant-based analog food products and are conducting R&D (ITO Ham, 2024; Kang and Kim, 2023; Nippon Ham, 2024; Prima Meat Packers, 2024). Food processing company Otsuka Foods and soybean paste processing company Marukome have also expanded into the plant-based meat analog industry, selling meat analogs made from soy-derived proteins (Table 5; Hitomi and Murakami, 2022).

Indonesia’s plant-based meat substitute market is expected to grow from USD 275.8 million in 2023 to USD 430.4 million in 2029, making it a country with a larger market size than Japan (Statista, 2024b). Most of the plant-based meat substitutes are consumed through products from foreign companies, and Indonesian companies include Green Rebel Foods and Meatless Kingdom (Arwanto et al., 2022; Green Rebel Foods, 2022; Meatless Kingdom, 2024). Green Rebel Foods produces beef steak and chicken using beans, mushrooms, and seitan and also sells cheese mixed with potatoes and coconut oil as a substitute for animal fat (Green Rebel Foods, 2022). Meatless Kingdom sells products in the form of traditional Indonesian beef dishes, such as tendeng, rendang, and gepuk, based on mushrooms (Meatless Kingdom, 2024).

Outside of these Asian countries, Singapore, although the market size of plant-based meat alternatives is very small, is well known as a country with a high level of acceptance of alternative meats. The plant-based meat alternative market in Singapore is expected to reach USD 13.75 million in 2023, making it a significantly smaller market compared to the aforementioned countries (Statista, 2024b). However, according to Food Frontier, the per capita alternative meat import value in 2022 was USD 2.34, which is high compared to other countries (Food Frontier, 2023). Singapore was the first country to approve commercial sales of meat substitutes in December 2020 and is encouraging research into alternative foods, such as plant-based meat substitutes, at the national level (MERiCs, 2023). This active acceptance of new foods is expected to be partly due to the fact that Singapore imports more than 90% of its food supply (Matwick, 2024). Singapore-based meat analog companies include Next Gen Foods and Karana. Next Gen Foods produces a chicken substitute called Tindle using wheat flour, soybeans, and sunflower oil and sells it in various forms, such as burgers, nuggets, and fillets (Next Gen Foods, 2020). Karana produces dumplings, burgers, and sausages using jackfruit as its main ingredient (Karana, 2022).

As Korea’s per capita intake increases, the production value of the livestock industry is expected to reach 29.2 trillion won in 2033, and the total livestock industry production is reported to gradually increase from 2016 to 2022 (KREI, 2024a). In a report announced by Statistics Korea in 2024, the ratio of livestock farms among all farms was confirmed to be 4.5%, and the proportion by livestock products was confirmed to be Korean beef at 65.9%, pigs at 3.4%, and chicken at 26.2% (Statistics Korea, 2023a; Statistics Korea, 2023b). However, although the income of livestock farms has increased by an average of 2.0% per year over the past 10 years (2013 2022), the number of livestock farms is decreasing by an average of 7.4% per year (Statistics Korea, 2023b; Statistics Korea, 2023c). One of the reasons is the aging of Korea’s livestock industry (Lee, 2023; Yoon et al., 2024). Therefore, the number of farm households and the population of farmers is expected to continue to decrease until 2032, and research to solve this problem is underway in Korea (Choi, 2024b). Recently, various studies have been conducted to foster the younger generation as farmers and develop smart livestock farming technology to improve the livestock industry environment (Kee et al., 2024; Ma et al., 2017). In addition, Korea’s livestock product self-sufficiency rate is also expected to gradually decrease to 40.0% for beef, 73.2% for pork, and 77.0% for chicken in 2023 (KREI, 2024b). According to the KREI, the application of tariff quotas to stabilize prices in 2024 led to an increase in imports of beef, pork, and chicken, a decline in exchange rates, and a decrease in self-sufficiency in livestock products (KREI, 2024b).

On the contrary, Korea’s livestock industry production itself is expected to continue to increase in the future. According to Choi and Lee (2023), the number of livestock farms is decreasing due to aging and declining rural population, but domestic livestock production is expected to increase due to improved productivity and increased added value. This appears to be the result of a strategy to specialize and scale livestock farms to respond to increased production costs, and as the scale of livestock farming increases, income increases due to reduced production costs (Choi and Lee, 2023). As such, domestic Hanwoo beef production continues to increase due to increased slaughter volume and carcass weight. In 2022, the number of Hanwoo raised reached a record high of 3,552,000 head, and domestic beef production is expected to increase to 318,000 tons in 2033 and continue to increase (KREI, 2024b). From 2025 to 2028, the number of animals available for slaughter and beef production is expected to decrease due to consumer meat support projects and a decrease in calf production, but the wholesale price of Hanwoo is expected to increase gradually, reaching 21,000 won/kg in 2033 (KREI, 2024b; RDA, 2022). The amount of pig slaughter is also expected to increase due to the increase in breeding, reaching 1.19 million tons in 2033, and the wholesale price of pork is also expected to rise by 3.2% 7.1% from 5,134 won/kg in 2023 to 2033 (KREI, 2024b). This can be seen as the result of ongoing research to improve livestock products related to improving sow fertility and pork productivity despite the decrease in sow population (Kil et al., 2013; Kim and Ok, 2015; KREI, 2024b; Min et al., 2020; Park et al., 2021). Like cattle and pigs, the productivity of breeders and broilers is expected to increase by an average of 0.8% per year from 98.67 million in 2024 to 106.43 million in 2033 (KREI, 2024b). Accordingly, the per capita livelihood distribution price is expected to increase from 2,062 won/kg in 2023 to 2,113 won/kg in 2033 (KREI, 2024b). In addition, the production of livestock products is expected to increase further due to the development of smart livestock farming technology, and the application of Internet of Things (IoT) technology-based monitoring to domestic pig farms is expected to increase the production rate by up to 9.3% (Mahfuz et al., 2022). However, excessive growth in breeding populations can lead to oversupply and a sharp decline in wholesale prices (KREI, 2024b).

Despite these conflicting opinions, the self-sufficiency rate of domestic livestock products may decrease due to increased dependence on imports, which may ultimately lead to an increase in the consumer distribution price of livestock products and an increase in the carbon footprint due to transportation distance (Clapp, 2017; Kaufmann et al., 2022). In Korea, various studies are being conducted to improve the self-sufficiency rate of livestock products, and interest in self-sufficiency rate has increased rapidly since the COVID-19 pandemic in 2019. Meanwhile, discussions on analysis and improvement measures for the self-sufficiency rate of livestock products at home and abroad continue (Avkhadiev et al., 2021; Bingham et al., 2022; Guo and Tanaka, 2020; Kaufmann et al., 2022; Kopteva and Shabalina, 2020; Sarıca, 2023; Yoon et al., 2024).

According to a report published by the Ministry of Agriculture, Food and Rural Affairs (MAFRA) in 2023, the per capita consumption of Korea’s three major types of meat (pork, beef, chicken) is expected to increase by an average of 0.8% per year to reach 65.5 kg in 2033 (MAFRA, 2023). Meanwhile, the OECD-FAO Agricultural Outlook 2023 2032 report indicates that domestic per capita meat consumption in 2030 will be lower than the OECD average but will increase steadily by 2032 (OECD and FAO, 2023). Korea’s meat consumption is positively associated with its household preference for meat: pork is by far the most consumed meat (67.6%), followed by beef and chicken at 19.3% and 12.2%, respectively (KREI, 2024b).

Results from the Food Consumption Survey (Lee et al., 2023) showed that the frequency of eating pork was approximately once every 2 weeks or once a week, and the preference for domestically produced pork was overwhelmingly high at 92.5% (Lee et al., 2023). Pork is sold in seven parts: shoulder, sirloin, pork belly, ribs, tenderloin, front leg, and hind leg, among which consumers have a high preference for pork belly because of its high-fat content (Choe et al., 2015). According to the KREI Agricultural Observation Center consumer survey, the preference for pork belly (62.3%) far outweighed that for pork neck (21.3%) and pork ribs 9.5% (Kang et al., 2024; KREI, 2024b; Oh and See, 2012). In comparison to the high-fat parts, demand for low-fat cuts is low, which causes the price of high-fat cuts to rise due to oversupply (Kang et al., 2024; Kim and Choi, 2018). In 2023, the wholesale price of pigs was 5,134 won/kg due to an increase in production compared to the previous year, and the retail price of pork belly (2,534 won/kg) far exceeded that of low-fat foreleg at 1,355 won/kg (KREI, 2024b). To alleviate this oversupply of low-fat parts, the government is working to establish a new system for domestic institutions and associations and promote sales of low-fat products through the 2013 Agricultural Distribution Structure Improvement Plan announced in 2013 (Kim and Choi, 2018).

Beef was most often consumed once a month (34.3%) or once a week (32.5%; Lee et al., 2023). The types of beef distributed domestically can be divided into Hanwoo, imported beef, and introduced beef, and Korean consumers are known to prefer high-quality Korean beef with high intramuscular fat content (Chung et al., 2018; Gotoh and Joo, 2016; Lee et al., 2023). However, the origin of beef sold was 71.6% domestic and 19.5% Australian. The preference for domestic beef was relatively low compared to pork, and the high preference for imported beef was due to differences in perception of taste, safety, and low price (Chang, 2023; Kim, 2019; Lee et al., 2023). As of 2023, the average price of Hanwoo (castrated cattle) was 18,619 won/kg, whereas American beef was 11,101 won/kg and Australian beef was 8,834 won/kg, making imported beef relatively cheaper (Lee et al., 2023). Therefore, research on reducing feed costs and improving feed efficiency has recently been actively conducted to stabilize Korean beef prices (Chang, 2018; Lee et al., 2021b; Yoon et al., 2024).

Regarding the frequency of chicken consumption, most consumers ate it once every 2 weeks (26.6%) or once a month (25.1%; Lee et al., 2023). The origin of chicken sold was largely domestic, accounting for 96.0%, and the average price of broiler chicken in 2023 was 797 won/chicken, an increase of 14.2% compared to the previous year (KREI, 2024b; Lee et al., 2023). The purchasing rate of chicken by parts was whole chicken (28.7%), breast (22.5%), and leg (18.1%), confirming the preference for the whole carcass (KREI, 2024b).

Based on the data mentioned above, the per capita consumption, number of livestock, production, and current market prices of the three major livestock species (pigs, cattle, chickens) in Korea are expected to increase steadily. In addition, the total production amount for the entire livestock industry is expected to grow steadily without decline until 2035. According to previous research on the relationship between the plant-based meat analog market and the traditional meat market, it is generally believed that despite the increase in market share for plant-based substitutes, it will not have a significant impact on the meat market (Andreani et al., 2023; Lusk et al., 2022; Neuhofer and Lusk, 2022). Moreover, most households that purchased plant-based meat analogs also tended to purchase traditional meat, and the scale-up of plant-based meat analogs had a small impact on cattle production (Lusk et al., 2022; Neuhofer and Lusk, 2022).

As of 2021, the US beef industry produced 28 billion pounds of beef, and US beef exports were valued at 3.4 billion pounds (USDA, 2023). The US is not only the largest beef producer but also a beef exporter with the world’s largest livestock industry (Poddaturi, 2023). The US plant-based meat market saw an increase from USD 1.56 billion in 2022 to USD 1.95 billion in 2023 (SKYQUEST, 2024). In contrast, the US beef market, which was valued at USD 102.00 billion in 2023, is projected to grow to USD 108.14 billion by 2024 (Fortune Business Insights, 2024a). Although the plant-based meat market continues to grow, the scale of growth in the traditional meat market is significantly larger. In Canada, the world’s third-largest pork exporter and seventh-largest beef exporter, Canada’s largest grocery chain reported that growing demand for plant-based proteins was not affecting meat sales despite the rapid growth of meat analogs (Edmiston, 2020). Canada’s traditional meat market share is over 99%, with an average annual growth rate of 1.7%, while the market share of meat analogs is 0.9%, with an average annual growth rate of 8.3% (Agriculture and Agri-Food Canada, 2019). Therefore, the impact of the growth of alternative foods on the growth of traditional meat will be minimal. Approximately 43% of Canadian consumers reported that they are willing to replace some of their meat consumption with plant-based sources (Ngapo, 2022). However, a previous study found that while about 11% of consumers claimed that their consumption of pork had decreased over the past 12 months, another 17% of consumers had actually increased their consumption of traditional meat (Ngapo, 2022). Therefore, even in the US and Canadian markets, where meat analogs are actively sold, the existing traditional livestock market is not shrinking, and the traditional meat market is expected to grow steadily (Fortune Business Insights, 2024b; Fortune Business Insights, 2024c).

In the case of the Korea market, when the traditional meat and meat analog search engine share in 2023 was compared with that to 2016, the traditional meat search engine share increased 1.4 times for pork (from 9.4 to 12.8) and 2.7 times for beef (from 6.5 to 17.7), whereas chicken showed a 1.2-fold decrease (from 11.59 to 9.94; Data Lab, 2023a). The share of meat analogs increased 15.8 times (from 0.9 to 14.5) for vegetable proteins, 12.6 times (from 1.6 to 20.5) for cultured meat, and 4.1 times (from 30.4 to 7.5) for edible insect proteins (Data Lab, 2023b). Although the popularity of alternative protein foods generally increased significantly between 2016 and 2023, consumer interest in domestic traditional meat gradually increased. In addition, although it has been a long time since various meat analogs were released, meat consumption has not decreased, and meat analogs still hold a small market share compared to the traditional meat market (Choudhury et al., 2020; Godfray et al., 2018; OECD and FAO, 2023; Safdar et al., 2022). This trend is confirmed to be due to negative perceptions of meat analogs, preference for traditional meat, poor taste of meat analogs, and lack of familiarity with meat analogs (Carlsson et al., 2022; Cordelle et al., 2022; Godfray et al., 2018; Motoki et al., 2022; Safdar et al., 2022; Siegrist and Hartmann, 2023; Slade, 2018; Szenderák et al., 2022; Tuorila and Hartmann, 2020).

According to a report by Meticulous Research (2024), the global plant-based meat analog market size is expected to grow at an average annual rate of 8.4% from 2024 to 2031, reaching USD 26.45 billion in 2031. As seen in the previous data, the meat analog field is growing, and some consumers are reducing their meat consumption. However, the traditional meat market, which is overwhelmingly large, is also growing steadily. The number of consumers who are increasing their meat consumption is also increasing, so the meat analog market is growing. It is judged to have no significant effect as a substitute for traditional meat. In Korea, there are also reports that foods using alternative proteins are expected to quickly occupy the livestock market as they have a lower environmental load compared to traditional livestock production and have a positive effect on consumer awareness, such as promoting animal welfare (Choi et al., 2022). However, similar to the global trend, even as the number of consumers purchasing plant-based meat analogs increases, the number of consumers purchasing traditional meat is also expected to continue to increase. As such, the alternative food market is not having a significant impact on the domestic traditional livestock industry market and is expected to have a negligible impact in the future.